Is the ‘Burnham Bounce’ still bouncing? On the eve of the Labour Party Conference, where is Labour’s support? Our latest polling looks at who Labour has won back since July, and why Burnham’s approval might not be lifting Labour’s vote share.
Why is it becoming harder to disagree? Our latest report with UCL looks at the nature of disagreement and debate in Britain. Why do three in five say it’s becoming harder to disagree, and how could pubs be the answer?
Britons, AI, and existential threat: Our latest polling finds a public that is worried about the existential threat of AI, while young Britons are concerned about the immediate risk it poses to their careers and finances.
But first, Labour Conference!
Hot on the heels of Liberal Democrat Conference (you can find our annual report on the state of the Liberal Democrats here!), we're off to Liverpool for the Labour Party Conference, and we're excited to be hosting our biggest ever programme, with numerous events across all three days.
We'll be joined by a huge range of speakers, including journalists, MPs, ministers, mayors and leaders from across civil society. Working with our amazing partners, each panel draws on new More in Common polling, and the topics run from the future of the BBC and free speech to the ECHR, gambling reform, nature, the cost of living and young people's mental health.
We start on Sunday at 13:30 with a panel on the future of the BBC. That evening we're hosting a drinks reception with Save the Children from 20:30 to 22:00 in Meeting Room 12, so do come and say hello.
Our flagship event, 'Will Burnham rebuild Labour's coalition?', is on Monday at 15:00 in the Arden Insights Lounge. There we'll share exclusive polling on Burnham's first months as Prime Minister and what could win back Labour's lost voters. Then on Tuesday at 17:30 I'll be in the Derwent Arena Room giving our response to Burnham's first conference speech as Labour leader.
These are just a few of our events. You can find the full programme here:
We'll also be publishing new research throughout the next few days - including our flagship report on Labour's voter coalition on Monday 28 September, so keep an eye on our website, your inbox and my X account. And we'll have extra content on the Opinion Brief Podcast, reporting live from Liverpool, so make sure you're subscribed.
On the eve of the Labour Party Conference, the party has now been leading in our polls for nine weeks in a row, and Andy Burnham is still the most popular party leader. But Labour’s lead has narrowed slightly since his first week as Prime Minister, and hasn’t followed the same rise as his own approval rating. So is the ‘Burnham Bounce’ real?
There’s no doubt that Labour is in a much better position today than a few months ago, but there are two potential dangers that could cause concern for Labour: firstly, they’re winning back defectors on the left, but struggling to win back voters lost to the right; secondly, Labour’s vote share doesn’t seem to be catching up with Burnham’s personal popularity.
The ‘Burnham Bounce’ in support for Labour has mostly come from winning back the party’s progressive defectors. In March 2026, at the height of Polanski’s ‘Green surge’ in the polls, eleven per cent of people who voted Labour in 2024 said they'd vote Green tomorrow; by September, that was down to five per cent, so Labour has cut its Green losses by more than half. Meanwhile losses to the Liberal Democrats have fallen from six per cent to five per cent.
Labour has also chipped away at losses to the right, but nowhere near to the same extent. Taking the flanks together: losses to the left (Liberal Democrats plus Greens) dropped from 17 per cent to ten per cent. On the right (Conservatives plus Reform) the drop has only been from 17 per cent to 13 per cent. It seems that Labour hasn’t made as much progress in appealing to its rightward switchers.
And while Burnham has a strong personal brand, his own strong ratings seem to have decoupled from his party. Starmer’s approval was consistently below that of his party, finishing with 19 per saying he is doing a good job. Burnham’s ratings (38 per cent) are now 12 points ahead of Labour’s vote share.
In other words, only half (49 per cent) of those who think that Andy Burnham is doing a good job plan to vote Labour.
Why is it becoming harder to disagree?
Our latest report is all about the state of disagreement and debate in Britain today. We’ve partnered with UCL, and the research forms part of their Disagreeing Well campaign, which explores how people can navigate disagreement constructively - not by eliminating differences of opinion, but by developing the skills and spaces that allow people to listen, understand different perspectives and disagree without becoming hostile.
Our research found that the public believes disagreement is normal and necessary, but Britain bottles it up. Nearly two in three Britons (63 per cent) lean towards the view that it is important to discuss every topic, no matter how strongly we disagree.
"Nothing's off the table for me. If it's something that's needing discussed, then it should be discussed. I think the worst thing you can do, particularly in a relationship, is not have that discussion."
Darrell, Glasgow
"It's important... to respect and have that mutual understanding and allow everyone to have that freedom of speech and have their say and their opinions."
Daniyah, Manchester
Yet while Britons might welcome difficult debates in principle, most avoid them in practice. 54 per cent say they prefer to avoid discussing controversial or tricky topics, while 46 per cent say they enjoy it. And enjoyment varies significantly across different groups: men, young people and those who attended university are significantly more likely to enjoy disagreement than older Britons, women and non-graduates.
It was also clear from our focus groups that many Britons view disagreeing well as a life skill, something they had picked up through years of experience of household arguments and workplace debates. Several describe getting better at it as they get older, or after having children. And for many, this ‘getting better’ meant being less interested in winning, and more able to hear the other side.
"It's a life skill. (...) thinking back to the person I was when I was 20 versus the person that I am now that I'm 41. When I was 20, I was 'this is right, I know what I'm doing.' Now it's like, okay, I need to listen to this person's point of view. I need to have a balanced argument." Willow, Southampton
"Too many people... they're actually just waiting for the person to stop talking so that they can get theirs across."
Darrell, Glasgow
"I think it's active listening rather than you're nodding. You can tell the person, they're not talking, but they're not listening either. It's actually about seeing that they're absorbing what you're saying."
Daisy, Nottinghamshire
Asked which skills matter most for productive disagreement, listening tops the list for Britons, selected by 46 per cent, ahead of staying calm (39 per cent), using facts (35 per cent) and remaining polite (26 per cent).
But most Britons (58 per cent) believe it is becoming more difficult to disagree in Britain today. While Reform UK voters are most likely to say this, it is not simply a left-right split; most voters across politics agree that disagreement is becoming harder.
Seven in ten (69 per cent) say they are at least sometimes reluctant to say what they really think - 21 per cent feel that way often.
Among those who do hold back, many cite classic British politeness: the top reason for not wanting to express themselves is hoping to avoid an argument.
But alongside this, for many Britons there is a deep worry that their views will be misrepresented or misunderstood (32 per cent). A quarter (25 per cent) worry about being seen as prejudiced and for Reform UK voters, that fear is the single biggest reason to stay quiet, given by 36 per cent.
Alongside the skills to disagree, the research also found the importance of having the spaces to do so.
As we’ve explored in our This Place Matters project, recent years have seen the hollowing out of physical spaces that may have allowed people to exchange views as associational life has declined and more people are working, shopping and learning from home. The shift has resulted in reduced opportunities for the kind of incidental social interaction between Britons who hold differing world views or perspectives.
In the absence of a 'town hall', social media has filled the vacuum and is now arguably the most prominent place where collective debates are had. Yet the vast majority of Britons do not feel comfortable disagreeing online, and those who do are disproportionately male, university-educated and left-wing.
In fact, beyond the home and the workplace, the main setting where Britons are likely to disagree about politics is the pub! 23 per cent at least sometimes argue about politics there: more than at a community group or town hall meeting (17 per cent), on a university or college campus (18 per cent) or in public with strangers (15 per cent), and just ahead of arguing with strangers on social media (22 per cent).
The pub is also one of the few spaces tested that remain politically balanced in terms of who is willing and feels able to disagree there. Those who disagree in the pub are equally likely to vote for parties on the left as on the right. From social media to community clubs, left-wing voters are far more likely to say they disagree about politics in public spaces. The pub is the exception.
"I enjoy a deep conversation where there's a bit of passion and difference of opinions... you might have strangers at your table that overhear a conversation and it turns into this mix of opinions."
Katherine, Sheffield
"People and particularly ones that had a drink, people become very political, don't they? And very vocal. So I mean that has always gone on in a pub."
Janet, Wakefield
"The local pub, if you get into a conversation with people who are more open-minded, it can work out quite well. Quite interesting."
Andy, focus group participant
The full report has a lot more findings on the state of disagreement, and what Britons feel they need to disagree better:
Last week, King Charles warned of the "existential dangers" posed by AI, and this week Sir Anthony Seldon’s report found that schools were unprepared for it. Our latest polling suggests that the dangers posed by AI have cut through to the public: seven in ten Britons worry that AI poses a threat to humanity, including 32 per cent who are very worried. Only a quarter (26 per cent) are not worried. Nearly four in ten (38 per cent) agree with the Anthropic whistleblower Jacob Coxon that there is more than a ten per cent chance AI wipes out humanity in the next decade. One in ten put that chance at over 50 per cent, while fewer than one in fine (18 per cent) think the chances are close to zero.
Interestingly, older people and women are the most concerned about the threat that AI could pose to humanity. Fear of AI is linked to distrust of big business: Britons who 'strongly agree' that big business is exploitative are nearly twice as likely to think AI has over a 50 per cent chance of wiping out humanity than the general public (18 per cent vs 10 per cent). 46 per cent of those who strongly distrust big business think AI has an over 10 per cent chance of wiping humanity out.
But for younger Britons, the fear is much more immediate. Across the public as a whole, fewer than half see AI as a threat to their job, but 64 per cent of 18 to 24 year olds see it as a threat to their job or career, and 56 per cent see it as a threat to their financial security. Concern about finances also rises to 61 per cent among Britons who are financially struggling.
Thank you very much for reading and have a great weekend!
All the best,
Luke
More in Common, 320 City Road, Angel, London EC1V 2NZ, United Kingdom
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