How has the conflict in the Middle East affected attitudes at home? Our latest report tracks public opinion on the Israel-Palestine conflict, and perceptions of public safety and social cohesion in Britain.
Will tactical voting shape the next election? In an era of ‘high stakes politics’, which parties could benefit most from increased tactical voting?
The Seven Segments and mental health: Our new report with Wellcome is a deep-dive into how the British public think about mental health, and how they feel about the country’s mental health services.
In this week’s episode of The Opinion Brief podcast, we’re talking about the Liberal Democrats. On the eve of their party conference, is the Lib Dem strategy working? Who and what are the Liberal Democrats for?
How has the conflict in the Middle East affected attitudes at home?
Since November 2023, shortly after the horrific October 7th attacks, we’ve been tracking the British public’s evolving attitudes to the Israel-Palestine conflict. Our two deep-dive reports on the topic, 'More than Choosing Sides' and 'After Choosing Sides', laid out the dynamics driving public opinion.
In the almost three years since the war began, Britons’ fundamental views have remained stable: most have not taken a side in the conflict, most feel sheer horror at the impact on civilians on both sides, and want the war to end. Three in five Britons (62 per cent) say they sympathise with neither side, both sides equally, or don’t know; 12 per cent side with Israel, while 26 per cent side with Palestine.
In some ways, progressive Britons stand out in their attitudes: Progressive Activists and Green Party voters are two of the only groups where majorities choose a side; across every other segment and voter group, most do not.
But while the public's understanding of the conflict hasn't changed, the conflict has undeniably affected life in Britain. As antisemitic incidents rise, and following a spate of high-profile attacks, less than half of Britons now believe the UK is a safe place for Jews.
Since May 2024, the proportion of Britons who say the UK is safe for Jewish people has dropped from 55 to 43 per cent, while the proportion saying it is unsafe has risen from 31 to 43 per cent. Six in ten Britons (60 per cent) say that being a Jewish person in the UK has become more dangerous over the last few years, and nearly four in ten (39 per cent) believe the number of anti-Jewish hate crimes will keep going up. Just 9 per cent think it will fall.
In focus groups, Britons describe witnessing the effects of anti-semitism. In a Greater Manchester focus group conducted for this research, one participant described a friend wearing a Star of David necklace who was harassed by pro-Palestine protesters on a march; another said they knew Jewish neighbours who now take their Star of David necklaces off before heading into town, for fear of being targeted.
“The community feels a need to spend, I would imagine, in the millions of pounds just to protect themselves so they can go about their daily life. Kids can go to school, they can go to shops, they can pray, they can worship. I think the government has got to take a massive responsibility for that.”
Kevin, 68, Retired Police Officer
Many Britons also worry about rising anti-Muslim hate: a plurality (43 per cent) believe it has become more dangerous to be Muslim in the UK in recent years, against 20 per cent who think it’s become safer, and more than a third (36 per cent) expect anti-Muslim hate crime to rise further. Among Gen Z Britons, 50 per cent say the UK is unsafe for Muslims, compared to 38 per cent for Jews.
“It’s made my family and some of my friends really question whether we want to remain as Brits really. And we’ve become thinking about is it better to raise our children in a different country? And I have friends who’ve moved to Qatar to Dubai, which obviously they have their own issues, no nation’s perfect, but it don’t feel like it’s such a racist nation.”
Fatimah, Teacher
Concerningly, even perceptions of public safety are becoming partisan and polarised: those who side with Israel in the conflict increasingly feel that the UK is a safe place for Muslims but not for Jews; likewise, those who sympathise with Palestine tend to think the UK is safe for Jews but not Muslims. In other words, the consensus on public safety is fracturing.
And this gap is widening, as those on either side move further apart in their perceptions of public safety for different groups in Britain.
Will tactical voting shape the next election?
We’ve written before about the rise of high-stakes politics. In recent by-elections in Makerfield, Gorton and Denton, and Clacton, we’ve been surprised by higher-than-usual turnout, and spoken to voters who are highly engaged and deeply invested in the result.
There’s no doubt that tactical voting will play a role in this era of high-stakes politics. Nearly one in three Britons (32 per cent) now say they are willing to vote tactically if they think their preferred party cannot win in their seat, although 35 per cent say they are not. But that willingness to vote tactically is far from evenly shared across voter groups. Majorities of Labour (51 per cent), Liberal Democrat (54 per cent) and Green Party (51 per cent) voters say they would vote tactically, compared to just 35 per cent of Conservative voters and 30 per cent of Reform UK voters.
Younger voters and graduates are far more open to it too: 43 per cent of Gen Z say they would vote tactically compared to 25 per cent of the over-65s, and 47 per cent of graduates compared to 32 per cent of those without a degree.
Willingness to consider tactical voting is even higher when voters are presented with alternative parties to choose between. Again, left-of-centre voters are much more likely to say they would vote tactically between progressive parties: between 60 and 80 per cent of Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green voters say they would consider voting tactically for at least one of the other parties on the left.
The right's tactical coalition is far less cohesive. Interestingly, there’s a clear asymmetry here: six in ten Reform voters say they would be willing to vote tactically for the Conservatives, but just over half of Conservative voters (51 per cent) say they would never consider voting tactically for Reform, and are actually more open to lending their vote to the Liberal Democrats (50 per cent) than to Reform UK (45 per cent).
It’s a mistake to view voters like Lego blocks that you can stack together to build a bigger support base, and Conservatives and Reform do not form an easy tactical right bloc.
It’s clear that tactical consolidation on the left could be a serious barrier for Reform, and a key challenge for Nigel Farage is not just to expand his own support, but also to be less hated or feared by other voter groups. But no party on the left can afford to take tactical voting for granted: as we’ve seen in Caerphilly, Gorton and Denton and Makerfield, this tactical voting can swing in multiple directions, and dramatically squeeze any party that’s not seen as the safe choice. It’s not easy for voters to gain a clear picture of how each party is likely to perform in their seat. Unless we see a cohesive pact between parties on the left - something that currently looks like a slim chance - voters might find themselves with a sense of tactical paralysis, unsure who the ‘safe choice’ could be. And while the left looks more united than a few months ago, there’s no saying what the level of fragmentation could be by the next election.
Where does Britain stand on mental health?
Our latest report with Wellcome looks at how Britons feel about mental health - using our Seven Segments as a lens for exploring how different groups approach the topic, how comfortable they feel opening up to friends and family, and what action they want to see from government.
We found that the public is not polarised on mental health, but it is not uniform either. Almost three quarters (73 per cent) say mental health is as important as physical health - although a majority (55 per cent) say it is treated with less importance.
In focus group conversations, Britons across the political spectrum approach the issue from shared starting points: lived experience (either firsthand or experience from loved ones) and compassion. There is a strong consensus that people’s experiences about mental health are genuine. Britons are almost three times as likely to say that people talking about mental health have genuine concerns for their health and welfare than the idea they are using it as an excuse (by 63 to 22 per cent).
It’s clear that many celebrate destigmatisation, and feel that it is becoming easier to speak about mental health.
“The best thing about mental health right now is that we’re talking about it - we’re openly discussing.”
Gurdeep, Glasgow, Sceptical Scroller
“It gets brought up a lot in my friendship group, whenever we go out for a drink or we meet up for whatever reason. We always like to check if everyone's all right, if anything's on anyone's mind, because one of the boys has been affected, a friend of a friend took his own life. So it's important that as a friendship group now, we look out for each other.” Sam, office admin, Dissenting Disruptor
Beyond destigmatisation, another key driver of hope is innovation and scientific advances. We explored this in our ‘Britons talk Trust in Science’ report with Wellcome that looks at the way that looking forward to scientific progress is a key driver of hope in Britain. Two in three Britons (65 per cent) believe that scientific advancements will improve the lives of those with mental health issues in coming years. While the Seven Segments have highly disparate levels of confidence in digital treatments, most believe that new technologies will have the ability to improve things.
So Britons see many reasons to be hopeful, but this optimism has barriers. Our research found that the biggest cause for pessimism about the future of mental health support is a belief that services are simply not functioning now.
In focus groups, people share their experiences of endless waiting lists, Kafkaesque referral systems, and desperately seeking help for relatives. For the public, this is often a deeply personal issue - driven by direct interactions with services. And it’s hard to feel at all hopeful about the future of mental health when the current environment feels so dire.
And there are wide disparities in trust and optimism: segments who have lower trust in institutions are far less hopeful that innovations will actually lead to a better future for those living with mental health issues. A common refrain in focus groups is that it simply doesn’t matter that we are talking about mental health more - that it doesn’t even matter if we’re finding new interventions or better treatments - that mental health services in Britain are so bad that these benefits won’t be felt by those who need them most.
“From what I've heard on the news, it's getting worse. The waiting lists for seeing specialist doctors seems to be getting longer. So, although we are talking about it more, I do feel that things like the NHS, it hasn't got the capacity to help everybody. So that is the only problem.”
Gail, retired, Rooted Patriot
“I think that the NHS is so stretched as it is and the problems that we're facing with mental health.”
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