Happy Friday! Hope this finds you well. From Birmingham to Brighton to Liverpool to Llandudno, back to Brighton and…next week, back to Birmingham (and Aberdeen the week after that)! It’s been a busy few weeks at More in Common - and this newsletter is full of new polling, podcasts and panel events for you.
In this week’s newsletter…
Has Burnham got it right with the public? As Labour Conference wrapped up in Liverpool, our new research looked at Labour’s voter base - and the three tests by which the public will judge this government.
What’s happening in Wales? More in Common’s first poll of Wales since the 2026 Senedd election, sponsored by Cavendish Cymru and Senedd Sources, finds Plaid Cymru’s lead in the Senedd holding firm - but the ‘Burnham Bounce’ has hit Wales as Labour have recovered by seven points since the May elections.
Alongside conferences, it’s been our busiest week yet for the podcast! We’ve got three episodes for you this week!
We’ll also have even more special content coming out from the Conservative Party Conference next week - stay tuned!
Come see us at the Green and Conservative Conferences!
After Liverpool and Llandudno this week, we're heading to Brighton for the Green Party Conference and then on to Birmingham for the Conservative Party Conference. At both we'll be bringing new More in Common polling to panels on everything from nature to the BBC, tax and tactical voting.
Greens, Saturday 3 October
We're spending the whole day in the Alexandra Room at The Grand. We start at 09:00 with what Britons want from gambling regulation. At 10:15 we ask whether the Greens can make the most of nature as an issue that brings Britain together, and at 15:00 we turn to disagreeing well across differences. Our flagship event, 'Where next for the Greens?', is at 16:15. I'll be joined by senior politicians and journalists to look at where the party stands under Zack Polanski, why its support has stalled, and whether progressive voters are moving back to Labour under Burnham.
Conservatives, Monday 5 and Tuesday 6 October
Our flagship event, 'Can Badenoch turn the Conservatives around?', is on Monday from 16:15 to 18:00 in the Sonata Room at the Hyatt Regency. We'll share exclusive polling on why Kemi Badenoch's personal popularity hasn't yet turned into a recovery for her party. Straight after, we're teaming up with UCL Policy Lab to ask whether Conservative communitarianism can renew Britain. Then do come and say hello at our reception, from 19:45 to 21:30 in Executive Room 7 at the ICC.
On Tuesday we're covering the big tax debate, the role of universities and whether the Conservatives can be the tactical choice for voters on both left and right. All our Conservative events are in the Secure Zone.
Earlier this week in Liverpool, we released our new research into Labour’s voter base - and the three tests by which the public will judge this government.
Three key tests for this government
Britain is, by its nature, a nation of gradualists - but that patience is wearing thin. In 2024, Britons still preferred gradual change (52 per cent) to radical change (38 per cent). Two years on, that has flipped: 42 per cent now want radical change, and 36 per cent gradual.
The public recognise that change takes time, but in the meantime Britons will need to see that three conditions are being met in order to restore trust:
The ‘gets it’ test: Does Andy Burnham understand the public’s sense of exhaustion on the cost of living crisis, and their concern about issues like migration?
The ‘trying’ test: Does this government have the will to improve things for ordinary people?
The ‘can’ test: Does the government have a credible plan to deliver long-term change for Britain?
Burnham has passed two of the three tests that Keir Starmer failed.
The 'gets it' test
Andy Burnham is seen as in touch. Asked to choose Andy Burnham’s greatest strengths, Britons most often say he communicates well (19 per cent) and is in touch with ordinary people (17 per cent). Among those who voted Labour in 2024, being in touch with ordinary people comes top (26 per cent). People often contrast this with Starmer in focus groups.
“He’s not been one of those mayors what says and doesn’t deliver. He’s delivered. (...) And he’s genuine. You can relate to him. He’s been in our shoes. He’s grown up, he was born in Liverpool. He’s grown up in a working class family. So I think there’s a lot to relate to him. Whether he’s going to deliver or not, that’s another question.”
Yasmin, housing officer, Manchester
“When he was mayor in Manchester, I quite liked him. I thought he was quite for working class people, if you can put it that way. Compared to other politicians, he did seem quite normal.”
Harley, events project manager, Nuneaton
The 'trying' test
Burnham’s opening salvo has been highly popular and has demonstrated trying. Keir Starmer’s first 100 days in office were marked by a series of unpopular policies - and the most toxic policies were also the most well-publicised. For example, the decision to means-test the Winter Fuel Allowance was the most unpopular and most widely known policy among the public, and became the ‘original sin’ that defined the Starmer government to the public for the rest of his premiership.
Andy Burnham’s first two months have looked very different. His initial set of policies - a barrage of cost of living interventions - were highly popular, and people have heard about them. Most well-known was the £2 bus fare cap, which more than four in five Britons had heard something about.
Asked to describe him in a word or two, “trying” is one of the most common answers Britons give, alongside “good”, “useless” and “don’t know”.
“Because he was a man that said, ‘I’m going to do this in the first week,’ and then he did things, I want to say that’s a step in the right direction, but I don’t know.”
Sam, prop maker, Sheffield
“Yeah, I think he’s got some more ideas about how to help people more, hasn’t he? He’s come up with more things, the bus fares, the VAT for the entertainment and things like that. I think it’s a good idea.”
Kim, IT, Solihull
But some see Burnham as a ‘people pleaser’ - and have doubts about his vision for the country. Asked to choose what holds Andy Burnham back the most, Britons most often say he is a people pleaser (18 per cent) or has no clear vision for the country’s future (13 per cent). Among Labour defectors (those who voted Labour in 2024 but have since moved elsewhere), these rise to 23 and 18 per cent.
Some also have doubts about his decision-making. Around one in ten say inexperience is a key weakness (12 per cent) or that he can’t make tough decisions (11 per cent), rising to 16 per cent of Labour defectors. But notably, just four per cent call him dishonest.
“His speech was nice... but I think putting those things actually into practice is the hard part... Is it just the speech to get us all on his side? What is he actually going to do?”
Rachel, operations executive, Holborn and St Pancras
The 'can' test
While Andy Burnham has proven to many Britons that he gets it and is trying to fix a country that feels broken, doubts remain over whether he can.
Most Britons (53 per cent) say Andy Burnham is likeable, but they are nine points less likely (44 per cent) to say he is competent, and 42 per cent say he is in control. So while Burnham performs better on likeability than competence, Kemi Badenoch performs better on competence than likeability.
There’s been a vibe shift under Burnham, but the public now want substance. Voters welcome him being more visible and present than Starmer, who many felt hid behind prepared lines - but some are already asking where the money is coming from.
"Whereas I'd say Andy Burnham, there's at least a bit more vision, a bit more presence, and that I welcome… it's nice to have someone leading the country who's a bit more visible and present."
Ross, contractor, Southwark
"I think he's doing lots of things that people will think, oh, this all sounds brilliant. I'm a bit concerned as to where all the money's coming from… But it's early days, and as with all of them, we'll give them all a chance, don't we, until we have enough and jump over somewhere else."
Lorna, dog groomer, Clacton
"I think [Keir Starmer] fell into the trap of talking like a politician and never really said anything straight. He went around the houses with what he was saying and people don't [want] that."
Rich, IT manager, Manchester
"Starmer hides behind a lectern with a sheaf of notes. And it's all prepared. The other fella stands in the middle of Downing Street. There's no lectern. He's not hiding."
Bernard, retired construction worker, Trafford
And Burnham still has a hill to climb in rebuilding public trust on the most salient issues: Brits still distrust the government across the board - and while there’s been an improvement on cost of living, public scepticism on migration remains.
Britons want to combine immediate relief with a long-term plan. Appetite for radical change has grown sharply since 2024, and almost two thirds (63 per cent) now say Labour should mainly focus on solving long-term problems and fixing the country’s structural issues, versus 37 per cent who prioritise immediate relief.
“I would tell him to set long-term goals but have some short-term relief... something that’s tangible that can help immediately... just some help while you tell us what the plan long-term is.”
Rachel, operations executive, Holborn and St Pancras
You can read the full report, 'Will Burnham rebuild Labour’s coalition?', here:
Some of the team are in Llandudno for Plaid Cymru Conference today, and we’re excited to release our first voting intention poll since the Senedd Elections in May. It offers our first proper look at how the landscape has changed, and how the Welsh public are responding to Plaid’s start in government.
Plaid Cymru holds a five-point lead over Reform UK for the Senedd, five months on from winning May's Senedd election. Labour has recovered seven points since the election, while both Plaid Cymru (-3) and Reform UK (-2) have slipped back.
Full results (with changes from the 2026 Senedd election):
Plaid Cymru 32% (-3)
Reform UK 27% (-2)
Labour 18% (+7)
Conservatives 12% (+1)
The Green Party 6% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 5% (+1)
For Plaid Cymru, this suggests that their honeymoon period has not dissipated. And while Labour’s climb seems to suggest a ‘Burnham Bounce’, they have not recovered: an election held tomorrow would still be their second worst Welsh election in history.
Andy Burnham is the only leader tested with a positive net approval rating in Wales (+3). Rhun ap Iorwerth follows on -3, level with Kemi Badenoch, while Nigel Farage has the weakest rating (-29).
Burnham is popular with Plaid voters: seven in ten 2026 Labour voters (72 per cent) say he is doing a good job, and so do more than half of those who voted Plaid Cymru in May (54 per cent), compared to just 17 per cent who say he is doing a bad job.
Three in ten people in Wales (30 per cent) still don’t know whether Rhun ap Iorwerth is doing a good or bad job. He is popular with Plaid Cymru voters (+48) and Labour voters (+20), but not with Reform UK voters (-48).
But Rhun ap Iorwerth wins the respect contest Rhun ap Iorwerth is the only politician tested who more people in Wales think has respect for the people of Wales than not (48 per cent to 28 per cent).
Every other figure tested is more likely to be seen as lacking respect for the people of Wales. Nearly two thirds (63 per cent) say Nigel Farage has not much or no respect for the people of Wales, while Andy Burnham, despite his popularity, is seen as lacking respect by 49 per cent, compared to 35 per cent who say he has respect.
Majorities of Plaid Cymru voters (81 per cent), Labour voters (68 per cent) and Conservative voters (52 per cent) say Rhun ap Iorwerth respects the people of Wales.
“I didn’t vote for Plaid, but I believe the leader is a patriotic Welsh man, and I feel he should do his best for Wales. So I’m quite optimistic for him.”
Phil, Abergavenny
Many people in Wales say Plaid Cymru’s time in government has been about what they expected (41 per cent), while 25 per cent say it has been worse and 17 per cent better. Seven in ten (70 per cent) say the new government feels like more of the same compared to the previous Welsh Labour government.
More in Common asked people in Wales how much they had heard about 13 policies and moments from the Plaid Cymru Government’s first months, and whether each reflected positively or negatively on the government. The grid below plots each one by how widely it has cut through and how it has landed.
The government’s problem is that its most popular policies have not cut through with the public. None of the 13 policies and moments tested has been heard of by more than 54 per cent of people in Wales, and on average just four in ten have heard of each one. The best known is the pact with Scottish and Northern Irish leaders to pursue independence (54 per cent), with the request for referendum powers (48 per cent) also better known, but both split the public almost evenly.
The few policies that are both popular and well-known are Plaid Cymru’s cost of living interventions. Around half of people in Wales have heard of extending free school meals to secondary pupils on Universal Credit (51 per cent) and continuing £1 bus fares for young people (50 per cent). Both are strongly supported: 58 per cent and 59 per cent say they reflect well on the government. Funded childcare from nine months is not far behind (44 per cent aware, 47 per cent positive).
Beyond these, Plaid’s most popular pledges are going largely unnoticed. Promising up to 10 new NHS surgical hubs is the government’s most highly rated policy, with 60 per cent saying it reflects well on the government, yet just 36 per cent have heard of it. The same is true of 20,000 more social homes (55 per cent positive, 36 per cent aware).
Across every voter group in Wales, the public say they will judge the Plaid Cymru Government on two key tests: how much they lower the cost of living (59 per cent) and how they much reduce NHS waiting lists (55 per cent). These are the top two priorities for Plaid Cymru, Labour, Reform UK and Conservative voters alike. They are well ahead of jobs and opportunities for young people (25 per cent), affordable housing (18 per cent) and child poverty (17 per cent).
By contrast, few say they will judge the government on constitutional questions. Fewer than one in ten say they will judge it on whether it moves Wales closer to independence (nine per cent), gets more powers devolved to Wales (nine per cent) or protects the Welsh language (eight per cent). Even among Plaid Cymru’s own voters, only 15 per cent say independence will be one of their main tests.
Read our report, 'Plaid Cymru: Governing a Fragmented Wales', here:
-1.png?upscale=true&width=588&upscale=true&name=The%20Opinion%20Brief%20(4)-1.png)
