We’ve had another big week at More in Common - today, we’re in Aberdeen for our seventh and final party conference of the year! And with the Autumn Budget just two weeks away, we’re kicking off our Budget research, so keep an eye out for new polling and focus groups in the coming days.
In this week’s newsletter:
Can the SNP get their spark back? Our latest research, which we presented yesterday at SNP conference in Aberdeen, looks at the state of Scottish politics five months on from the 2026 Holyrood elections, and the challenges facing the SNP in their fifth term in office.
Did Tory conference shift the dial? Our poll this week saw the Conservatives reach their highest vote share in eighteen months, while Badenoch’s approval rating hit an all-time high. What has changed?
Do Britons want to rejoin? Burnham has put the UK’s relationship with Europe back on the grid. What do the public want?
Can the SNP get their spark back?
In some ways, the SNP have reason to feel cheerful at their conference in Aberdeen this week. In May, they achieved something few governments can manage: they were re-elected for the fourth time. At a time when incumbents across the Western world are being punished by voters, the SNP’s longevity is remarkable.
Five months on, our new polling finds the SNP still ahead: if elections were held tomorrow, at Holyrood or Westminster, they would maintain a healthy lead.
But that lead masks a widespread lack of enthusiasm. We called May’s Scottish Parliament election the ‘meh’ election: voters wanted change, felt no party was offering it, and were deeply disillusioned with politics. The SNP have not shaken off that sense of ‘meh’. Three in five Scots (62 per cent) still think things are getting worse, and more than half (53 per cent) see the SNP as ‘more of the same’.
The key difference of course between May and today is the Prime Minister. In May, voters in Scotland faced a double incumbency: they were unenthusiastic about the SNP, but UK Labour’s brand was deeply toxic. With Andy Burnham now in Downing Street, will Labour pose a greater threat to the SNP?
So far, our polling has not shown a ‘Burnham bounce’ reshaping politics north of the border. Labour has recovered slightly since the Holyrood election, gaining two points on the constituency ballot and four on the regional list. But that is well short of the eight points it has gained since May in our GB-wide Westminster voting intention.
Burnham is not unpopular in Scotland. He is the only party leader with a positive net approval rating (35 per cent say he is doing a good job, 31 per cent a bad job), putting him ahead of the First Minister. But Scots have doubts about whether he cares for, or respects, Scotland. Almost half (46 per cent) think he cares less about Scotland than about the rest of the UK, including more than a third (36 per cent) of Labour’s own 2026 voters. And 46 per cent of Scots think he does not respect the people of Scotland, compared with 32 per cent who think he does.
This is one area where the SNP have a clear advantage. John Swinney is seen to respect the people of Scotland more than any other leader: 46 per cent say he has at least a fair amount of respect for them. Asked to describe him in a word, many choose “trying”, “honest” or “trustworthy”.
But while Swinney passes the respect test, few voters are enthused by him. Among the current Holyrood leaders he is the top pick for best First Minister (23 per cent), but more Scots choose “none of them” (27 per cent) or say they don’t know (26 per cent). By 28 per cent to 17 per cent, Scots say Nicola Sturgeon was a better First Minister than Swinney. And in our focus groups, voters often lament the loss of Scotland’s "big beasts": unionists speak admiringly of Sturgeon and Alex Salmond, while SNP voters say they miss opponents like Ruth Davidson. Many tend to see Swinney as a “decent man”, but without the “fire in his belly” of his predecessors.
"I think [Swinney] is a decent guy, but I don't know that he's got the charisma to drive things on. I think that's the difference between... I wasn't a fan of Nicola Sturgeon, but she certainly put herself out there."
April, North Berwick
"I preferred politics when it was Sturgeon, Ruth Davidson, Kezia Dugdale."
Sam, Midlothian
So what do voters want from the SNP? As the party launches what it calls the ‘biggest independence campaign since the referendum’, our polling shows that independence remains the biggest driver of the SNP vote and the glue that holds its coalition together. That coalition is broad. Almost half of the party’s 2026 voters (46 per cent) are Progressive Activists or Incrementalist Left, but nearly one in five (18 per cent) are Dissenting Disruptors, a socially conservative segment that makes up almost half of Reform UK’s vote. This means that the SNP has a broader ideological spread of voters than any other party in Scotland. What unites them is how they see the party’s role: at its best, SNP voters say, it puts Scotland’s interests first (42 per cent) and supports independence (34 per cent).
But for some, the focus on independence risks overshadowing everything else. The most common reason Scots give for not voting SNP is that the party focuses too much on independence at the expense of other priorities (20 per cent). That rises to 39 per cent among Labour voters, and it is among the top objections for those considering the SNP. A revived independence campaign will be popular with the party’s own voters, but many Scots will want it matched by a clear vision for the country’s future.
You can read the full report through the link below. It also covers where support for independence stands, SNP voters’ complex views on oil and gas, and how tactical voting might play out north of the border.
Our poll this week was a good one for the mainstream parties. Labour and the Conservatives’ combined support is at 52 per cent. That doesn’t sound impressive: it is still lower than the 57 per cent they won at the highly fragmented 2024 General Election. But given they were only scraping 37 per cent between them this spring, things are (relatively) looking up for the two main parties and they seem to have had a good conference season.
In the week after the Conservative conference they are up three points to 24 per cent, their highest vote share since March 2025. That puts them back in second place, three points ahead of Reform UK (21 per cent), their largest lead over Reform since January 2025. And Kemi Badenoch’s net approval rating has hit +5, the highest since she became leader and 37 points up on her low of -32 last October. Only Andy Burnham (+11) now rates higher.
So what’s behind the ‘Badenoch bounce’? There are a few things that have gone well for the Conservatives at their conference.
On policy, the party’s flagship inheritance tax pledge commands public support: nearly two thirds of Britons (64 per cent) back exempting family homes, while 56 per cent support raising the individual tax-free allowance to £500,000. Half (51 per cent) support spending £10 billion on a ‘Britannia Shield’. Other policies are more divisive. Just 27 per cent support scrapping the mansion tax, and only 16 per cent back abolishing Natural England and the Environment Agency.
But probably the most striking finding is on taking the fight to Reform on issues of identity. We conducted an experiment where we showed half of our sample a clip of Badenoch’s conference speech, in which she criticised Reform MPs’ stance on English identity and suggestions from some that non-white members of the England football team aren’t English. Among those who saw it, her net favourability rose by 13 points, from +8 to +21, while Nigel Farage’s fell from -24 to -35. But interestingly, the biggest shift came among 2024 Reform voters themselves: 57 per cent of those who saw the clip held a positive view of her, compared with 40 per cent of those who didn’t. So Badenoch’s decision to draw a clear line between the Conservatives and Reform on issues like identity clearly appeals to many voters.
But it will take more than a good conference season to turn around the Tories’ fortunes. Even after this boost, an election held today would likely be no better for them than their historically low 2024 result. And although Badenoch’s net approval is rising, when we ask Britons for their preferred prime minister, Burnham leads on 32 per cent, while just 17 per cent choose Badenoch. The challenge now is to build on the momentum and rebuild voters’ trust that the party is ready for government.
Do Britons want to rejoin?
For a decade, the question of rejoining the EU has been largely off-limits for the main parties. But Andy Burnham’s recent comments have reopened the debate. How do the public feel about it, and could this be a risk for Labour?
The post-Brexit decade has left the British public politically exhausted. While Britons overwhelmingly feel that Brexit has not worked, they are less certain about whether the debate should be reopened. Half the country (51 per cent) think it is important that Burnham settles the question of UK-EU relations, even if it risks dividing the country, while a third (32 per cent) would rather he had left the debate closed. Most 2016 Leave voters (62 per cent) would rather it stayed closed, while most Remain voters (73 per cent) want it settled.
Britons are very clear that rejoining would require a referendum, not just a manifesto pledge. Two thirds of Britons (67 per cent) say a referendum would be needed, including more than seven in ten of both Leave and Remain voters, while just 13 per cent think winning an election on a rejoin pledge would give the Government a mandate.
Half the country (52 per cent) would like a referendum on rejoining within the next five years. For some, that is not just about the EU itself but also a desire to finally settle the question: 36 per cent of those who want a referendum say it is because it’s time for long-term clarity on UK-EU relations. But 31 per cent of those opposed to a referendum do so because they worry it would divide the country again.
If a referendum were held, Rejoin would likely start off with an advantage. Among those likely to vote, 59 per cent say they would back rejoin and 36 per cent would vote to stay out.
But this is asked in the abstract, and we know a long campaign and debate over EU membership could swing public opinion either way. And of course, the likely terms of a rejoin deal would shape opinion.
The public appears, at least for now, to be more relaxed about free movement (50 per cent find it acceptable), but joining the Euro (48 per cent), contributing £20 billion a year to the EU budget (45 per cent) and giving EU vessels access to UK waters (40 per cent) are all seen as unacceptable to many.
Why do the public seem more accepting of free movement now than they were when it was the flashpoint issue in 2016? Part of it might be simply that the issue and its link to immigration hasn’t yet come into view and that will change in a campaign. However, it also seems to be the case from focus groups that people think that Brexit didn’t live up to its promises to give greater control over immigration, and small boat crossings in particular have become far worse. For some the prospect of switching to more European migration is appealing.
Overall, there is no doubt that rejoin would start off with a lead, but may still be a challenge for Burnham to hold that support throughout a campaign, particularly if the public are once again voting on a deal that has yet to be negotiated, and are unclear what the future relationship will look like.
That’s all for this week, thank you for reading!
All the best,
Luke
More in Common, 320 City Road, Angel, London EC1V 2NZ, United Kingdom
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